IHME Lowers Projected Number of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

There’s some good news on the coronavirus front.  The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has lowered the projected number of deaths for the United States.  As you recall, at the end of last week the Trump administration told the American people to brace for between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths.

From Breitbart:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent from 81,766 to 60,415 early Wednesday morning.

The IHME model has come under withering criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release from IHME explaining the reasons for the reduction. It marks the second reduction in the model’s U.S. deaths projections since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities.

On April 5, the death projections were lowered to 81,766.

“Our estimates assume statewide social distancing measures are continuing in states where they have already been enacted, and for those states without such measures in place, it is assumed they will be will be in place within seven days,” IHME director Christopher Murray said on April 5.

“If social distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” Murray added.

While it is good news that we are anticipating less deaths, it does make one question how accurate these models are.  It is understandable that the experts are operating on changing data with a novel virus.   However, when a reduction is made, the American people deserve a detailed explanation of the reason why the reduction was made.

If we are shutting down vast segments of our economy based on these models, we deserve to know how these models are being crafted and all the assumptions and underlying data.

The continual change in these models should also make a question if we should be taking such drastic shutdown measures.  Ben Shapiro has been arguing on his daily podcast that perhaps a more targeted quarantine among the elderly and those with underlying health conditions would be more appropriate and sustainable than what we are currently doing.   I 100% agree with his assessment.  We need to get the vast majority of people back to work and resume life as normally as we can as quickly as we can.  All focus should be placed on protecting the vulnerable, creating a vaccine, testing treatments, and ensuring hospitals have adequate supplies.

How much weight do you think we should be giving models?